| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 58% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| logistic | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| John Echeverria | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1440 | 1479 |
| Surface Elo | 1440 | 1479 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Felix Roussel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Thiago Agustin Pernas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Lars Goran Verwerft | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Oliver Tarvet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Aug | H | Stuart Parker | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Isaac Nortey | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Andrea Colombo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Yanaki Milev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Sandro Kopp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | H | Ryan Seggerman | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |