| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.8% | 49% | -3.9% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.4% | 73% | +1.3% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.8% | 63% | -2.6% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 77% | -17.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.1% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.8% | 27.8% | 39.4% |
| xgboost | 47.0% | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| logistic | 43.4% | 40.9% | 15.7% |
| Volendam | Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1422 | 1409 |
| Surface Elo | 1422 | 1409 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.40 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 166 | 2725 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Oct | H | Rohda Raalte | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 5 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Utrecht | 6 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Waalwijk | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Waalwijk | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Oct | A | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Utrecht | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |