| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.1% | 64% | -5.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| logistic | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Flavio Cobolli | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1888 | 1947 |
| Surface Elo | 1888 | 1947 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Stan Wawrinka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Stan Wawrinka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Flavio Cobolli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Brandon Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Flavio Cobolli |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 0 | Flavio Cobolli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.56 | 64.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |