| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.3% | 66% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.8% | 89% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.6% | 84% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% | 63% | -15.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.4% | 22.1% | 19.6% |
| xgboost | 63.9% | 21.9% | 14.2% |
| logistic | 72.0% | 19.7% | 8.3% |
| York | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1663 | 1410 |
| Surface Elo | 1663 | 1410 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.57 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Swindon | 4 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Bristol Rvs | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bristol Rovers | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Tranmere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Rochdale | 4 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.40 | 22.7% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.56 | 64.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |