| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.9% | 64% | -0.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| logistic | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1608 | 1673 |
| Surface Elo | 1608 | 1673 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 8 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Paula Badosa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Taylah Preston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Anastasia Zakharova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Taylah Preston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Nadia Podoroska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Mary Stoiana | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| 05 Aug 2024 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Paula Badosa |
| 08 May 2023 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Paula Badosa |
| 10 Jan 2022 | Jelena Ostapenko | 0 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| 15 Mar 2021 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| 28 Sep 2020 | Jelena Ostapenko | 0 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.56 | 64.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |