OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ League Two · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Gillingham 2.00 0 - 0 1.00 Newport County
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 46.2%49%-2.5%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 72.4%77%-5.0%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 62.0%67%-4.6%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 46.5%54%-7.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 53.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson45.2%26.5%28.2%
xgboost38.1%34.6%27.3%
logistic40.0%29.4%30.6%
Inputs the models saw
GillinghamNewport County
Elo (pre-match)14051364
Surface Elo14051364
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.00
Form trend0.20-0.70
Season points per game1.501.13
Season goals for / game1.381.50
Season goals against / game1.131.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W6 W · 0 D
Gillingham: last 5
26 SepAYork0 - 3L
26 SepAYork0 - 3L
22 SepHCambridge1 - 4L
19 SepHBristol Rvs3 - 0W
19 SepHBristol Rovers3 - 0W
Newport County: last 5
26 SepHGrimsby2 - 1W
26 SepHGrimsby2 - 1W
22 SepASwindon2 - 0W
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
Head to head
17 Jan 2026Gillingham3 - 2Newport County
20 Sep 2025Newport County1 - 3Gillingham
04 Mar 2025Newport County3 - 1Gillingham
22 Oct 2024Gillingham0 - 2Newport County
17 Feb 2024Newport County1 - 0Gillingham
28 Oct 2023Gillingham0 - 2Newport County
29 Apr 2023Gillingham1 - 2Newport County
19 Nov 2022Newport County2 - 0Gillingham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.6027.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.9152.4%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.0050.0%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8554.0%03 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.3330.0%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5028.6%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1546.5%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9551.3%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8454.4%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:24 UTC