OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Lille 2.00 1 - 1 1.40 Brest
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.4%52%+3.9%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 81.8%78%+3.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 74.6%69%+5.4%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.4%59%-2.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson56.0%24.2%19.7%
xgboost62.6%22.9%14.5%
logistic52.4%26.0%21.6%
Inputs the models saw
LilleBrest
Elo (pre-match)17781613
Surface Elo17781613
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend-0.10-0.10
Season points per game2.171.33
Season goals for / game1.502.00
Season goals against / game0.671.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W2 W · 5 D
Lille: last 5
13 OctAArsenal0 - 3L
10 OctHLe Havre1 - 0W
10 OctHLe Havre1 - 0W
20 SepANice1 - 2L
13 SepHTroyes2 - 0W
Brest: last 5
10 OctHAngers5 - 1W
10 OctHAngers5 - 1W
20 SepAAuxerre1 - 2L
13 SepHParis Saint Germain0 - 1L
05 SepALe Havre2 - 1W
Head to head
14 Feb 2026Lille1 - 1Brest
17 Aug 2025Brest3 - 3Lille
10 May 2025Brest2 - 0Lille
06 Dec 2024Lille3 - 1Brest
17 Mar 2024Brest1 - 1Lille
22 Oct 2023Lille1 - 0Brest
24 Feb 2023Lille2 - 1Brest
11 Jan 2023Brest0 - 0Lille
22 Jan 2022Brest2 - 0Lille
23 Oct 2021Lille1 - 1Brest
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.2530.8%17 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2home2.1546.5%17 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8354.6%17 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0349.3%17 Oct 19:45
SportyBet1X2away3.7426.7%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8026.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.0449.0%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7158.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:19 UTC