| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 41.8% | 47% | -4.7% | |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 86% | -10.5% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.4% | 61% | -8.9% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | no line | ||
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.8% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.0% | 26.4% | 31.6% |
| xgboost | 31.2% | 26.2% | 42.6% |
| logistic | 35.7% | 27.6% | 36.7% |
| Elche | Castellon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1605 | 1616 |
| Surface Elo | 1605 | 1616 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | A | Atletico Pinatarense | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Vallecano | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Vallecano | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Villarreal | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Villarreal | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Oct | A | UB Conquense | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Sp Gijon | 4 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Sporting Gijon | 4 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | CF La Nucia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 3 - 0 | W |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Elche | 3 - 1 | Castellon |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Castellon | 0 - 2 | Elche |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |