| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.7% | 23% | +24.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.1% | 83% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.5% | 29% | +31.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 71% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.2% | 25.3% | 48.5% |
| xgboost | 37.7% | 21.9% | 40.5% |
| logistic | 27.5% | 27.2% | 45.3% |
| Volendam | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1422 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1422 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 159 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Waalwijk | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rohda Raalte | 8 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Vitesse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Almere City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Roda JC Kerkrade | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Twente | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Twente | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Willem II | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Willem II | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Volendam | 2 - 1 | Utrecht |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Utrecht | 3 - 1 | Volendam |
| 04 Feb 2024 | Utrecht | 4 - 2 | Volendam |
| 06 Oct 2023 | Volendam | 1 - 0 | Utrecht |
| 02 Apr 2023 | Utrecht | 0 - 0 | Volendam |
| 12 Nov 2022 | Volendam | 0 - 4 | Utrecht |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.30 | 23.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |