| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 47% | +2.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 76% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.1% | 64% | -0.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 48% | +2.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.1% | 24.1% | 25.8% |
| xgboost | 35.3% | 30.9% | 33.8% |
| logistic | 44.0% | 28.3% | 27.7% |
| Falkirk | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1639 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1639 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | St Johnstone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | St Johnstone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Sep | H | Hearts | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Dundee United | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Sep | H | Rangers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Spartans | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Elgin | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Motherwell | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Motherwell | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Hearts | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Falkirk | 1 - 0 | Dundee |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Dundee | 1 - 0 | Falkirk |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Falkirk | 2 - 1 | Dundee |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.76 | 56.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |