| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.9% | 60% | -3.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| logistic | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Matteo Berrettini | Kyrian Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1851 | 1828 |
| Surface Elo | 1851 | 1828 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.18 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.45 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| Rest days | 11 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Tianhui Zhang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |