| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.4% | 39% | +8.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 78% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.2% | 53% | +7.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 49% | +3.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.5% | 26.0% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 34.2% | 30.9% | 34.9% |
| logistic | 33.5% | 30.3% | 36.2% |
| Swindon | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1436 | 1471 |
| Surface Elo | 1436 | 1471 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.22 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.44 | 0.78 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Rochdale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Rochdale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Blackpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bristol Rovers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Bristol Rvs | 3 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Swindon | 1 - 2 | Crewe |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Crewe | 0 - 3 | Swindon |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Swindon | 0 - 0 | Crewe |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Crewe | 0 - 0 | Swindon |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Crewe | 2 - 1 | Swindon |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Swindon | 2 - 2 | Crewe |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Crewe | 2 - 1 | Swindon |
| 19 Nov 2022 | Swindon | 0 - 1 | Crewe |
| 20 Feb 2021 | Swindon | 2 - 1 | Crewe |
| 01 Dec 2020 | Crewe | 4 - 2 | Swindon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |