| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.8% | 60% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 42.1% | 57.8% |
| logistic | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| Timo Legout | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1566 | 1648 |
| Surface Elo | 1566 | 1648 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Daniel Milavsky | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Daniil Ostapenkov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Colton Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Aug | H | Felix Gill | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Jay Friend | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Colton Smith | 0 - 2 | Timo Legout |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.66 | 60.2% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |