OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Eredivisie · Saturday 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC · finished
Ajax 2.00 1 - 1 1.00 Nijmegen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 57.0%75%-18.2%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 79.8%92%-12.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 72.6%90%-17.4%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 64.6%77%-12.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.5%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson57.5%21.8%20.7%
xgboost58.2%18.2%23.6%
logistic64.4%20.6%14.9%
Inputs the models saw
AjaxNijmegen
Elo (pre-match)16761581
Surface Elo16761581
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.00
Form trend0.100.40
Season points per game2.001.14
Season goals for / game3.001.71
Season goals against / game1.291.86
Rest days2120
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W1 W · 4 D
Ajax: last 5
19 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
19 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
15 SepHWillem II5 - 1W
12 SepAFor Sittard5 - 1W
05 SepHPSV Eindhoven1 - 3L
Nijmegen: last 5
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
12 SepACambuur0 - 3L
08 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
05 SepHFeyenoord1 - 3L
Head to head
21 Feb 2026Ajax1 - 1Nijmegen
20 Dec 2025Nijmegen2 - 2Ajax
11 May 2025Ajax0 - 3Nijmegen
01 Dec 2024Nijmegen1 - 2Ajax
18 Feb 2024Ajax2 - 2Nijmegen
03 Dec 2023Nijmegen1 - 2Ajax
05 Mar 2023Ajax1 - 0Nijmegen
08 Jan 2023Nijmegen1 - 1Ajax
23 Apr 2022Nijmegen0 - 1Ajax
14 Aug 2021Ajax5 - 0Nijmegen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away7.5013.3%10 Oct 20:00
Bet3651X2draw5.2519.1%10 Oct 20:00
Bet3651X2home1.3673.5%10 Oct 20:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.2977.5%10 Oct 20:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.6027.8%10 Oct 20:00
SportyBet1X2away7.5113.3%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.2116.1%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3673.5%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.2977.5%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.7526.7%10 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC