| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.2% | 52% | +1.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 80.4% | 79% | +1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 72.0% | 69% | +2.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 48% | +13.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 20.0% | 22.8% | 57.2% |
| xgboost | 24.4% | 30.0% | 45.6% |
| logistic | 16.9% | 26.9% | 56.2% |
| Newport County | York | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1385 | 1654 |
| Surface Elo | 1385 | 1654 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Plymouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.70 | 27.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |