| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 71.7% | 73% | -1.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| logistic | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Rei Sakamoto | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1709 | 1940 |
| Surface Elo | 1709 | 1940 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Seongchan Hong | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Rei Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.25 | 30.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |