| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.0% | 47% | +14.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.5% | 73% | +12.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.5% | 62% | +17.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.3% | 64% | -18.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 45.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.1% | 25.9% | 19.0% |
| xgboost | 55.4% | 24.3% | 20.3% |
| logistic | 59.2% | 24.8% | 16.0% |
| Chesterfield | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1548 | 1394 |
| Surface Elo | 1548 | 1394 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | H | York | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | York | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Oldham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Barnet | 3 - 3 | D |
| 01 Sep | H | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Exeter | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Salford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Port Vale | 1 - 0 | Chesterfield |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Port Vale | 2 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Chesterfield | 2 - 0 | Port Vale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |