OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ League Two · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Accrington 1.20 2 - 0 2.20 Cheltenham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.4%44%+1.4%✓ hit
DCHome or away 73.3%78%-4.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 59.4%60%-0.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.4%57%-0.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson41.9%25.1%33.0%
xgboost38.6%28.0%33.4%
logistic37.2%28.6%34.2%
Inputs the models saw
AccringtonCheltenham
Elo (pre-match)13491460
Surface Elo13491460
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.202.20
Form trend0.200.00
Season points per game0.881.88
Season goals for / game1.382.00
Season goals against / game1.751.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W3 W · 4 D
Accrington: last 5
26 SepASwindon1 - 1D
26 SepASwindon1 - 1D
22 SepHSunderland3 - 3D
19 SepHNewport County0 - 0D
19 SepHNewport County0 - 0D
Cheltenham: last 5
26 SepHChesterfield2 - 1W
26 SepHChesterfield2 - 1W
22 SepHExeter2 - 2D
19 SepAColchester1 - 1D
19 SepAColchester1 - 1D
Head to head
31 Jan 2026Accrington3 - 1Cheltenham
06 Sep 2025Cheltenham1 - 0Accrington
28 Jan 2025Accrington0 - 0Cheltenham
01 Oct 2024Cheltenham2 - 1Accrington
11 Feb 2023Cheltenham0 - 0Accrington
17 Sep 2022Accrington1 - 0Cheltenham
02 Apr 2022Accrington4 - 4Cheltenham
16 Oct 2021Cheltenham1 - 0Accrington
13 Jan 2018Cheltenham0 - 2Accrington
23 Sep 2017Accrington1 - 1Cheltenham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.5539.2%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.2530.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.5539.2%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.9052.6%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9551.3%03 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.9034.5%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5028.6%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3542.5%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7557.1%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0548.8%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:05 UTC