| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.8% | 76% | -2.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 95.4% | 93% | +2.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 95.1% | 91% | +4.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.4% | 41% | +6.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 47.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.0% | 21.7% | 11.3% |
| xgboost | 74.9% | 16.9% | 8.2% |
| logistic | 73.0% | 18.6% | 8.3% |
| Manchester City | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1925 | 1689 |
| Surface Elo | 1925 | 1689 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 13 Sep | A | Manchester United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Coventry | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Crystal Palace | 4 - 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Bournemouth | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 May | H | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Arsenal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Fulham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Ipswich | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | H | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Jan 2026 | Sunderland | 0 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Manchester City | 3 - 0 | Sunderland |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.70 | 11.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.77 | 17.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 20 Sep 06:16 |