| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.0% | 79% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 63.7% | 36.2% |
| logistic | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Lukas Neumayer | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1689 | 1521 |
| Surface Elo | 1689 | 1521 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | D`Agostino, Stefano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Stefano D'Agostino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 1 - 2 | Lukas Neumayer |
| 23 Mar 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | Lukas Neumayer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 23 Sep 06:15 |