| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.4% | 68% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| logistic | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Tiago Pereira | Pol Martin Tiffon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1398 | 1592 |
| Surface Elo | 1398 | 1592 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Otto Virtanen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Laurent Lokoli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Laurent Lokoli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Pol Martin Tiffon | 0 - 2 | Tiago Pereira |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.54 | 64.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |