| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.8% | 54% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.7% | 83% | -7.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.1% | 74% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 51% | +1.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.3% | 28.3% | 22.4% |
| xgboost | 35.6% | 34.5% | 30.0% |
| logistic | 43.0% | 29.9% | 27.2% |
| Benevento | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1396 | 1415 |
| Surface Elo | 1396 | 1415 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Verona | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Ascoli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | A | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Cremonese | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Mantova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Virtus Entella | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Sampdoria | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.94 | 51.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |