| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.3% | 52% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 74.8% | 82% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.5% | 72% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 57% | -1.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 22.7% | 28.6% | 48.7% |
| xgboost | 34.6% | 29.7% | 35.8% |
| logistic | 26.0% | 27.5% | 46.4% |
| Lecce | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 20 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 7 W · 3 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Ac Milan | 0 - 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Monza | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Cagliari | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Roma | 0 - 4 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Torino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | A | Napoli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Sassuolo | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Atalanta | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Lazio | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Bologna | 2 - 0 | Lecce |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Lecce | 2 - 2 | Bologna |
| 09 Feb 2025 | Lecce | 0 - 0 | Bologna |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Bologna | 1 - 0 | Lecce |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Bologna | 4 - 0 | Lecce |
| 03 Dec 2023 | Lecce | 1 - 1 | Bologna |
| 04 Jun 2023 | Lecce | 2 - 3 | Bologna |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Bologna | 2 - 0 | Lecce |
| 26 Jul 2020 | Bologna | 3 - 2 | Lecce |
| 22 Dec 2019 | Lecce | 2 - 3 | Bologna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.04 | 49.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.44 | 29.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.20 | 23.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |