| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.2% | 59% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 60.5% | 39.4% |
| logistic | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Alex De Minaur | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2038 | 1911 |
| Surface Elo | 2038 | 1911 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.57 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.43 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Alex Molcan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Arthur Fery | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Dillon Beckles | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| 27 Oct 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Karen Khachanov |
| 21 Feb 2022 | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | Karen Khachanov |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Alex De Minaur | 3 - 2 | Karen Khachanov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |