| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 56% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.9% | 82% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.8% | 74% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 61% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.5% | 25.6% | 27.8% |
| xgboost | 51.7% | 26.4% | 21.9% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 27.3% | 23.8% |
| Mansfield | Bromley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1524 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1524 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Huddersfield | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 0 - 4 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Brentford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Huddersfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Huddersfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Blackpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |