OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
🇮🇹 Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC · finished
Ac Milan 1.80 3 - 2 1.20 Atalanta
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.5%55%-4.3%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 77.1%81%-3.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.7%73%-6.5%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.3%58%-3.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 52.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson40.0%26.7%33.3%
xgboost56.6%24.4%19.0%
logistic51.0%26.9%22.1%
Inputs the models saw
Ac MilanAtalanta
Elo (pre-match)17651712
Surface Elo17651712
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.801.20
Form trend0.200.00
Season points per game2.001.50
Season goals for / game1.831.33
Season goals against / game0.831.33
Rest days75
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W4 W · 3 D
Ac Milan: last 5
18 OctAChievo2 - 1W
15 OctASalzburg4 - 0W
11 OctASassuolo1 - 1D
11 OctASassuolo1 - 1D
20 SepHLecce3 - 0W
Atalanta: last 5
18 OctAAS Gubbio2 - 0W
15 OctHPafos FC3 - 1W
14 OctALatina Calcio0 - 2L
12 OctHVenezia3 - 1W
12 OctHVenezia3 - 1W
Head to head
10 May 2026Ac Milan2 - 3Atalanta
28 Oct 2025Atalanta1 - 1Ac Milan
20 Apr 2025Ac Milan0 - 1Atalanta
06 Dec 2024Atalanta2 - 1Ac Milan
25 Feb 2024Ac Milan1 - 1Atalanta
09 Dec 2023Atalanta3 - 2Ac Milan
26 Feb 2023Ac Milan2 - 0Atalanta
21 Aug 2022Atalanta1 - 1Ac Milan
15 May 2022Ac Milan2 - 0Atalanta
03 Oct 2021Atalanta2 - 3Ac Milan
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.0020.0%18 Oct 17:00
Bet3651X2draw4.2023.8%18 Oct 17:00
Bet3651X2home1.6261.7%18 Oct 17:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%18 Oct 17:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3842.0%18 Oct 17:00
SportyBet1X2away4.3423.0%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9525.3%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8653.8%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6660.2%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3043.5%18 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC