| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.2% | 58% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| logistic | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Ugo Blanchet | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1533 | 1657 |
| Surface Elo | 1533 | 1657 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 36 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Daniil Glinka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Nicolas Mejia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Adam Walton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Aug | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Nicolas Mejia | 0 - 1 | Ugo Blanchet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |