| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.0% | 83% | -14.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 75.5% | 24.4% |
| logistic | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Alex De Minaur | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1942 | 1869 |
| Surface Elo | 1942 | 1869 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 28 | 27 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Mariano Navone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Aug | H | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Aug | H | Arthur Fery | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Matteo Berrettini | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Novak Djokovic | 3 - 2 | W |
| 26 Aug | A | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Mariano Navone |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Mariano Navone |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.55 | 22.0% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 30 Sep 06:15 |