| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.9% | 51% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 81% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.4% | 68% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 66% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.4% | 24.2% | 39.4% |
| xgboost | 28.7% | 24.2% | 47.2% |
| logistic | 25.5% | 26.9% | 47.6% |
| Aldershot | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1394 | 1525 |
| Surface Elo | 1394 | 1525 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Hornchurch | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Hornchurch | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Tamworth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Tamworth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Fylde | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fylde | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Woking | 2 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Woking | 2 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Aldershot | 0 - 2 | Carlisle |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Carlisle | 2 - 0 | Aldershot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.40 | 29.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |