| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 66.4% | 79% | -12.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| logistic | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Michael Geerts | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1461 | 1509 |
| Surface Elo | 1461 | 1509 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 12 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Pavel Lagutin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Joao Domingues | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Vladyslav Orlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Ignacio Parisca Romera | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Iliyan Radulov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Michael Geerts | 0 - 2 | Pavel Lagutin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.27 | 78.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |