| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.7% | 43% | +9.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.1% | 71% | +5.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.7% | 58% | +8.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 57% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.9% | 25.9% | 31.2% |
| xgboost | 50.5% | 29.4% | 20.0% |
| logistic | 48.1% | 26.1% | 25.8% |
| Swansea | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1545 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1545 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.63 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.13 |
| Rest days | 20 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Lincoln | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Lincoln | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Burnley | 3 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | A | Southampton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Wrexham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Reading | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Bolton | 3 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Bolton | 3 - 4 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Middlesbrough | 3 - 4 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | Birmingham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Norwich | 1 - 1 | Swansea |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Swansea | 2 - 1 | Norwich |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Norwich | 5 - 1 | Swansea |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Swansea | 1 - 0 | Norwich |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Norwich | 2 - 2 | Swansea |
| 04 Oct 2023 | Swansea | 2 - 1 | Norwich |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Norwich | 0 - 3 | Swansea |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Swansea | 0 - 1 | Norwich |
| 05 Feb 2021 | Swansea | 2 - 0 | Norwich |
| 07 Nov 2020 | Norwich | 1 - 0 | Swansea |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.98 | 33.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.61 | 27.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |