OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-12

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Monday 12 October 2026, 07:10 UTC · scheduled

Daniil Medvedev 2.40 07:10 2.40 Dalibor Svrcina

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	84.5%	89%	-4.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	91.0%	8.9%
logistic	77.1%	22.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Dalibor Svrcina
Elo (pre-match)	2058	1740
Surface Elo	2058	1740
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	0 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

12 Oct	A	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Jan Lennard Struff	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	H	Rodrigo Alujas	2 - 1	W
05 Oct	A	Novak Djokovic	0 - 2	L
04 Oct	H	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 0	W

Dalibor Svrcina: last 5

12 Oct	H	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	H	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	H	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2 - 1	W
08 Oct	A	Cameron Norrie	2 - 1	W
08 Oct	A	Rohan Murali	2 - 1	W

Head to head

12 Oct 2026	Dalibor Svrcina	0 - 2	Daniil Medvedev
01 Oct 2025	Dalibor Svrcina	0 - 2	Daniil Medvedev
27 Jul 2025	Dalibor Svrcina	0 - 2	Daniil Medvedev

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.25	16.0%	12 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.13	88.5%	12 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.00	16.7%	12 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.00	16.7%	12 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	7.20	13.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.15	87.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Dalibor Svrcina	7.60	13.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.16	86.2%	12 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.61	15.1%	12 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.40	15.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.40	15.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.23	16.1%	12 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.11	90.1%	12 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	5.80	17.2%	12 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.13	88.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.05	16.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	7.20	13.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.15	87.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Dalibor Svrcina	7.60	13.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.16	86.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.40	15.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.86	14.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.13	88.5%	12 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	5.40	18.5%	12 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.10	90.9%	12 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	6.70	14.9%	12 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.70	14.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.07	93.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	5.60	17.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.10	90.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	5.80	17.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.13	88.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	5.80	17.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.13	88.5%	12 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.00	16.7%	12 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.75	14.8%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.12	89.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Dalibor Svrcina	6.25	16.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.11	90.1%	12 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC