| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 40% | +10.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.8% | 69% | +8.4% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.1% | 55% | +11.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 55% | +2.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.5% | 25.2% | 20.4% |
| xgboost | 43.7% | 30.3% | 26.0% |
| logistic | 47.1% | 27.6% | 25.3% |
| Rochdale | Accrington | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1546 | 1399 |
| Surface Elo | 1546 | 1399 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Grimsby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Grimsby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Crewe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Crewe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Gillingham | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Gillingham | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Oldham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Apr 2021 | Rochdale | 3 - 1 | Accrington |
| 10 Oct 2020 | Accrington | 2 - 1 | Rochdale |
| 01 Jan 2020 | Accrington | 1 - 2 | Rochdale |
| 12 Oct 2019 | Rochdale | 2 - 1 | Accrington |
| 09 Apr 2019 | Accrington | 0 - 1 | Rochdale |
| 24 Nov 2018 | Rochdale | 1 - 0 | Accrington |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.81 | 55.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |