OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-28
⚽ England EFL Cup · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:30 UTC · finished
Manchester City 2.40 2 - 2 2.40 Brighton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.4%59%-4.0%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 80.6%81%-0.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.1%76%-2.5%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.2%67%-10.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 57.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson60.2%21.2%18.6%
xgboost52.1%25.1%22.8%
logistic55.0%25.2%19.7%
Inputs the models saw
Manchester CityBrighton
Elo (pre-match)19241775
Surface Elo19241775
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.402.40
Form trend0.600.60
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days43
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 3 D
Manchester City: last 5
27 OctAPort Vale0 - 5L
24 OctAAston Villa1 - 2L
24 OctAAston Villa1 - 2L
20 OctHAEK5 - 1W
17 OctHIpswich Town U213 - 2W
Brighton: last 5
25 OctALiverpool0 - 2L
25 OctALiverpool0 - 2L
22 OctAFK Jablonec0 - 0D
18 OctHCrystal Palace5 - 0W
18 OctHCrystal Palace5 - 0W
Head to head
07 Jan 2026Manchester City1 - 1Brighton
31 Aug 2025Brighton2 - 1Manchester City
15 Mar 2025Manchester City2 - 2Brighton
09 Nov 2024Brighton2 - 1Manchester City
25 Apr 2024Brighton0 - 4Manchester City
21 Oct 2023Manchester City2 - 1Brighton
24 May 2023Brighton1 - 1Manchester City
22 Oct 2022Manchester City3 - 1Brighton
20 Apr 2022Manchester City3 - 0Brighton
23 Oct 2021Brighton1 - 4Manchester City
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.7521.1%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.5122.2%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7058.8%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4967.1%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%28 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:52 UTC