| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.8% | 43% | +3.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.9% | 76% | -0.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.0% | 59% | +1.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 60% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.6% | 22.1% | 38.2% |
| xgboost | 40.9% | 32.7% | 26.4% |
| logistic | 42.0% | 28.2% | 29.8% |
| Santander | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1588 | 1603 |
| Surface Elo | 1588 | 1603 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 0.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.86 |
| Rest days | 22 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Celta | 0 - 5 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Barcelona | 2 - 7 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Vallecano | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Elche | 1 - 4 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | SCR Pena Deportiva | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Sociedad | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Castellon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Alaves | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.19 | 31.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.64 | 27.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.31 | 43.3% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |