OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ League Two · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Exeter 0.60 1 - 0 1.20 Rotherham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 44.5%39%+5.6%✓ hit
DCHome or away 72.0%77%-4.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 58.9%54%+4.6%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 57.0%53%+3.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 55.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson39.6%31.6%28.7%
xgboost37.7%26.5%35.8%
logistic34.8%29.9%35.4%
Inputs the models saw
ExeterRotherham
Elo (pre-match)13931397
Surface Elo13931397
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.601.20
Form trend0.20-0.30
Season points per game0.751.25
Season goals for / game0.501.38
Season goals against / game0.751.38
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W2 W · 1 D
Exeter: last 5
26 SepABristol Rovers0 - 1L
26 SepABristol Rvs0 - 1L
22 SepACheltenham2 - 2D
19 SepHTranmere0 - 0D
19 SepHTranmere0 - 0D
Rotherham: last 5
26 SepHCrewe1 - 1D
26 SepHCrewe1 - 1D
22 SepAYork1 - 1D
19 SepANorthampton1 - 0W
19 SepANorthampton1 - 0W
Head to head
31 Jan 2026Exeter0 - 4Rotherham
06 Sep 2025Rotherham1 - 0Exeter
15 Mar 2025Rotherham1 - 1Exeter
10 Aug 2024Exeter1 - 0Rotherham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.7037.0%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.3030.3%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.4540.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.9351.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9351.8%03 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.7037.0%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3030.3%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.6038.5%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9351.8%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8554.0%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:20 UTC