| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.7% | 59% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| logistic | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Andrea Guerrieri | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1630 | 1583 |
| Surface Elo | 1630 | 1583 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 19 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Daniil Glinka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Nagel, Arthur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | Francesco Maestrelli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 21 Sep 06:15 |