| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.4% | 45% | +3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 75% | -1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.0% | 63% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 49% | +3.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 24.6% | 27.6% | 47.8% |
| xgboost | 36.1% | 32.0% | 31.9% |
| logistic | 33.1% | 29.0% | 37.9% |
| Ceuta | Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1459 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1459 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Dos Hermanas CF 1971 | 0 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad B | 3 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad | 3 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Andorra | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Andorra | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Oviedo | 3 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |