OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
🇮🇹 Serie A · Saturday 07 November 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Roma 2.20 3 - 0 0.20 Sassuolo
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 73.4%76%-2.7%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 90.3%92%-2.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 88.9%90%-1.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 69.9%74%-3.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.2%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson68.1%18.4%13.5%
xgboost81.0%13.1%5.9%
logistic77.5%15.9%6.6%
Inputs the models saw
RomaSassuolo
Elo (pre-match)18561587
Surface Elo18561587
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.200.20
Form trend-0.400.20
Season points per game2.400.80
Season goals for / game2.801.60
Season goals against / game1.002.60
Rest days75
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W1 W · 4 D
Roma: last 5
03 NovAMan Utd2 - 3L
31 OctAUdinese5 - 2W
31 OctAUdinese5 - 2W
27 OctHCagliari4 - 2W
27 OctHCagliari4 - 2W
Sassuolo: last 5
02 NovHFiorentina2 - 4L
02 NovHFiorentina2 - 4L
27 OctHLazio2 - 6L
27 OctHLazio2 - 6L
24 OctAComo0 - 2L
Head to head
10 Jan 2026Roma2 - 0Sassuolo
26 Oct 2025Sassuolo0 - 1Roma
17 Mar 2024Roma1 - 0Sassuolo
03 Dec 2023Sassuolo1 - 2Roma
12 Mar 2023Roma3 - 4Sassuolo
09 Nov 2022Sassuolo1 - 1Roma
13 Feb 2022Sassuolo2 - 2Roma
12 Sep 2021Roma2 - 1Sassuolo
03 Apr 2021Sassuolo2 - 2Roma
06 Dec 2020Roma0 - 0Sassuolo
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away8.5011.8%07 Nov 19:45
Bet3651X2draw5.5018.2%07 Nov 19:45
Bet3651X2home1.3076.9%07 Nov 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4071.4%07 Nov 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.0033.3%07 Nov 19:45
SportyBet1X2away8.8711.3%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.5315.3%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3375.2%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3673.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.3030.3%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:02 UTC