OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-27
⚽ Italy Serie A · Tuesday 27 October 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Roma 1.80 4 - 2 1.40 Cagliari
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 67.5%74%-6.0%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 91.3%91%+0.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 88.7%89%-0.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.4%61%-4.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 52.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson67.6%20.8%11.5%
xgboost71.0%21.7%7.3%
logistic78.1%16.1%5.9%
Inputs the models saw
RomaCagliari
Elo (pre-match)18431637
Surface Elo18431637
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.801.40
Form trend0.200.90
Season points per game1.670.33
Season goals for / game1.670.33
Season goals against / game1.002.33
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W2 W · 1 D
Roma: last 5
24 OctANapoli3 - 3D
24 OctANapoli3 - 3D
20 OctHSlovan Bratislava4 - 0W
17 OctHGenoa2 - 0W
17 OctHGenoa2 - 0W
Cagliari: last 5
24 OctHBologna0 - 2L
24 OctHBologna0 - 2L
19 OctAMonza0 - 4L
19 OctAMonza0 - 4L
12 OctHMonza1 - 1D
Head to head
09 Feb 2026Roma2 - 0Cagliari
07 Dec 2025Cagliari1 - 0Roma
16 Mar 2025Roma1 - 0Cagliari
18 Aug 2024Cagliari0 - 0Roma
05 Feb 2024Roma4 - 0Cagliari
08 Oct 2023Cagliari1 - 4Roma
16 Jan 2022Roma1 - 0Cagliari
27 Oct 2021Cagliari1 - 2Roma
25 Apr 2021Cagliari3 - 2Roma
23 Dec 2020Roma3 - 2Cagliari
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away9.6010.4%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.8517.1%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3474.6%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6261.7%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3542.5%27 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC