| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.6% | 65% | -13.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.7% | 47.2% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1947 | 1998 |
| Surface Elo | 1947 | 1998 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Tommy Paul | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Daniel Altmaier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Daniel Altmaier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 0 | Taylor Fritz |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 3 - 0 | Taylor Fritz |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | Taylor Fritz |
| 01 Jul 2024 | Lorenzo Musetti | 3 - 2 | Taylor Fritz |
| 08 Apr 2024 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 0 | Taylor Fritz |
| 27 Jun 2022 | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 3 | Taylor Fritz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.53 | 65.4% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |