| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.6% | 94% | -18.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| logistic | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| Gustavo Heide | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1704 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1704 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Hernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Eduardo Ribeiro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Franco Ribero | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Matteo Covato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Dorokhov, Ivan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Alex Hernandez | 1 - 2 | Gustavo Heide |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.00 | 12.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.06 | 94.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |