| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.7% | 74% | -11.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 46.7% | 53.2% |
| logistic | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Stefanos Sakellaridis | Yuta Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1738 | 1524 |
| Surface Elo | 1738 | 1524 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 22 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Duje Ajdukovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Andrej Nedic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Bernard Tomic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Philip Sekulic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Philip Sekulic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Arthur Weber | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 0 - 2 | Yuta Shimizu |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |