| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.0% | 62% | +1.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 61.5% | 38.4% |
| logistic | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1580 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1580 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 32 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Alina Charaeva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Elena Rybakina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Maria Sakkari | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Ella Seidel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sonay Kartal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Elena Rybakina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Anna Bondar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Alina Charaeva | 2 - 1 | Yuliia Starodubtseva |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |