| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.2% | 72% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 10.5% | 89.5% |
| logistic | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Matteo Arnaldi | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1816 | 1932 |
| Surface Elo | 1816 | 1932 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 9 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Yi Zhou | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Yi Zhou | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | A | Dane Sweeny | 1 - 3 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Dillon Beckles | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 0 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1 - 0 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Lorenzo Musetti | 3 - 1 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 17 Jul 2023 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 1 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 08 May 2023 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 0 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 19 Oct 06:15 |