| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.8% | 49% | -2.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 77% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.4% | 66% | -3.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 62% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.0% | 26.3% | 32.7% |
| xgboost | 51.4% | 26.3% | 22.3% |
| logistic | 44.0% | 27.2% | 28.8% |
| For Sittard | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1490 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1490 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.73 | 0.82 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.64 | 2.09 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Feyenoord | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Excelsior | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Nijmegen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Twente | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Willem II | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Utrecht | 4 - 2 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Utrecht | 4 - 2 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Almere City | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 3 | L |
| 08 Mar 2026 | For Sittard | 1 - 4 | Telstar |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Telstar | 1 - 3 | For Sittard |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 07 Nov 15:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 07 Nov 15:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 07 Nov 15:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 07 Nov 15:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 07 Nov 15:30 |