| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.0% | 68% | -12.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.3% | 88% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.3% | 83% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 74% | -19.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.4% | 22.0% | 20.6% |
| xgboost | 53.7% | 21.4% | 24.9% |
| logistic | 54.0% | 25.1% | 20.9% |
| Southampton | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1665 | 1516 |
| Surface Elo | 1665 | 1516 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bristol City | 4 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Swansea | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Lincoln | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Preston North End | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Preston | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | West Brom | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Sep | A | Charlton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Middlesbrough | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Southampton | 5 - 0 | QPR |
| 05 Nov 2025 | QPR | 1 - 2 | Southampton |
| 23 Dec 2023 | QPR | 0 - 1 | Southampton |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Southampton | 2 - 1 | QPR |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |