OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Bayer Leverkusen 2.00 2 - 1 2.60 Freiburg
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.7%58%-2.4%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 81.2%81%+0.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.9%75%-0.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61.5%67%-5.9%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 60.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson61.6%20.6%17.8%
xgboost52.1%24.5%23.4%
logistic58.4%23.8%17.8%
Inputs the models saw
Bayer LeverkusenFreiburg
Elo (pre-match)17471676
Surface Elo17471676
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.002.60
Form trend-0.600.20
Season points per game2.002.60
Season goals for / game2.802.80
Season goals against / game1.600.80
Rest days86
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 3 D
Bayer Leverkusen: last 5
15 OctAKKS Lech Poznan4 - 0W
10 OctAMainz4 - 3W
10 OctAMainz4 - 3W
20 SepHRB Leipzig2 - 0W
12 SepAAugsburg2 - 2D
Freiburg: last 5
15 OctHFK Jablonec3 - 2W
11 OctHSchalke 042 - 1W
11 OctHSchalke 042 - 1W
19 SepAEintracht Frankfurt2 - 2D
12 SepHBorussia Mönchengladbach5 - 0W
Head to head
07 Mar 2026Freiburg3 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
26 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2 - 0Freiburg
04 May 2025Freiburg2 - 2Bayer Leverkusen
21 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen5 - 1Freiburg
17 Mar 2024Freiburg2 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
29 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Freiburg
26 Feb 2023Freiburg1 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
03 Sep 2022Bayer Leverkusen2 - 3Freiburg
14 May 2022Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Freiburg
19 Dec 2021Freiburg2 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.7521.1%18 Oct 14:30
Bet3651X2draw4.5022.2%18 Oct 14:30
Bet3651X2home1.6062.5%18 Oct 14:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4071.4%18 Oct 14:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.0033.3%18 Oct 14:30
SportyBet1X2away4.9220.3%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.6121.7%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6759.9%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4668.5%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.8035.7%18 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC