| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.9% | 72% | -10.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| logistic | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Max Alcala Gurri | Andres Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1675 | 1635 |
| Surface Elo | 1675 | 1635 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 6 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Andy Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Mees Rottgering | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Luca Staeheli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Trevor Svajda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Darwin Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.31 | 76.3% | 19 Oct 06:15 |