| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.1% | 62% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| logistic | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Billy Harris | Felix Balshaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1609 | 1640 |
| Surface Elo | 1609 | 1640 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Felix Balshaw | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Murphy Cassone | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Murphy Cassone | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Henry Bernet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Billy Harris | 1 - 2 | Felix Balshaw |
| 01 Sep 2026 | Billy Harris | 1 - 2 | Felix Balshaw |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.64 | 61.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |